[Abstract]
[PDF]
[HTML]
[Linked
References]
Ramesh
S. Patil1, Sajjan C.G.2 and Nagaraja Rao C3
1Lecturer/
Statistician, Department of Community Medicine, Navodaya Medical
College, Raichur � 584101
2Lecturer,
Veershaiva College, Bellary -583104
3Professor,
Department of Statistics, Vijaya College, Bangalore-560004
Received 20 Sept
2011; Revised 24 Sept 2011;Accepted 28 Sept 2011
Academic Editor:
Dr. Jadhav V.A.
Projections of AIDS
incidence are critical for assessing future health care needs. There
is need for more accurate forecasts for the future course of the
epidemic. Projections for the future of the epidemic have most often
taken the form of trying to estimate how many new AIDS cases will be
diagnosed (or reported) over some span of future years. Projections
are very central for planning interventions and managing the available
resources as they provide very valuable information on the number of
undiagnosed infections. Issues that are necessary to the understanding
and management of AIDS have generated several statistical challenges
such as the choice of infection density, estimation of incubation
period distribution, and dealing with sensitivity and studying of
incomplete data. There were various mathematical and statistical
approaches have been proposed to predict the future AIDS cases. In
studying of AIDS, our main interest is in understanding the current
situation and predicting the future path